An advocacy group has projected a 2.3% increase in Social Security benefits for 2026. The Senior Citizens League, a group that focuses on issues affecting seniors, released its latest forecast for the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). According to their estimate, the increase will be 0.2 percentage points lower than the 2.5% adjustment announced for 2025.
The cost-of-living adjustments are meant to help Social Security recipients keep up with rising prices. However, advocacy groups like The Senior Citizens League argue that these raises do not reflect the actual cost increases seniors and other beneficiaries experience. They continue to push for a different method to calculate these adjustments to match real-world expenses better.
The 2.5% increase for 2025 was the smallest since 2021 when beneficiaries received just a 1.3% boost. In contrast, the rise in 2023 was 8.7%, marking the highest increase in over 40 years. The 2022 increase was also significant at 5.9%.
These larger increases in previous years were driven by soaring inflation, which reached its highest rate in decades. Inflation peaked at over 9% in 2022 but has since cooled, leading to lower Social Security adjustments in recent years.
The Senior Citizens League uses a statistical model to provide monthly predictions for the next Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. This model takes into account the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rates, and the national unemployment rate. The group adjusts its projections throughout the year based on economic conditions.
While Social Security recipients can expect a 2.3% increase in 2026, economic changes over the next year could still affect the final adjustment. Based on updated economic data and inflation trends, the official COLA announcement for 2026 is expected later in the year.
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