By Associated Press’s Joseph Krauss
Although Israel has defeated its adversaries throughout the area, it has not yet released all of its hostages from the Gaza Strip. Despite its apparent military defeat, Hamas has continued to launch insurgency strikes. Long-running peace discussions appear to have failed, and Gaza is in ruins and experts fear it is on the verge of famine.
From here, where do we go?
Although mediators from two American administrations, Egypt and Qatar, have yet to close the gaps, both Israel and Hamas have accepted ideas about how the war should conclude. In at least two other scenarios, the battle continues indefinitely, at an unfathomable cost to the Israeli hostages, their families, and the two million Palestinians living in Gaza. The European Union, Canada, and the United States have all classified Hamas as a terrorist group.
A closer look is shown here.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly close to ordering the complete reoccupation of Gaza for the first time since Israel evacuated its troops and settlers twenty years ago, according to reports in Israeli media for days. In order to perhaps reach a conclusion, he is scheduled to meet with his security cabinet late Thursday.
That would entail deploying ground forces into the roughly 25% of Gaza that hasn’t been completely destroyed, where a large portion of the 2 million residents have taken refuge, including the expansive Muwasi coastal refugee camps.
It might seriously jeopardize the roughly 20 hostages who are still alive and result in innumerable more Palestinian fatalities and enormous relocation. Additionally, Israel would retain complete authority over the region and be required by international law to maintain security and meet the fundamental necessities of the populace.
Reoccupation will further isolate Israel and the United States and provoke international outcry.Opposition within Israel also comes from previous security chiefs who have warned of a quagmire and others who are worried about the hostages.
Netanyahu’s far-right ruling allies, however, strongly favor it since they have long demanded that Gaza be retaken, that a large portion of its inhabitants be relocated abroad, and that Jewish settlements be rebuilt.
In exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel, a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a permanent truce, Hamas has stated that it will free all of the remaining captives.
The ceasefire deal that the Trump administration signed in January enshrines those conditions, which were accepted by the Biden administration and the U.N. Security Council more than a year ago. This resulted in the release of 25 surviving captives and the remains of eight others, a six-week ceasefire, and an influx of humanitarian relief.
Negotiations for a longer-term truce were to take place during that gap. Instead, Israel broke the armistice in March and demanded the release of some of the other hostages as well as another short-term ceasefire.
Israel is concerned that by leaving Gaza, Hamas will eventually be able to reassemble its military and continue to have influence there even if it does not currently possess official authority, opening the door for another attack similar to the one that occurred on October 7.
If Netanyahu accepts such demands, he might also worry that his far-right supporters will carry out their threats to overthrow the government. His 16 almost uninterrupted years in office may come to an end as a result, making him more susceptible to ongoing corruption accusations and investigations into the security and intelligence lapses surrounding the 2023 assault.
After all hostages are returned and Hamas is either vanquished or consents to disarm and go into exile, Netanyahu has declared that the war will come to an end.
Even yet, he claims that Israel would move forward with plans to send a large portion of Gaza’s population outside via what he calls voluntary emigration. The plan is viewed by the Palestinians and a large portion of the world community as an illegal expulsion that violates international law.
Netanyahu claims that Israel is prepared to accept a short-term truce in which Hamas would free a number of hostages who are still alive as well as the remains of others in exchange for the release of Israeli-detained Palestinians, an influx of humanitarian aid, and a partial Israeli withdrawal. Israel would demand that Hamas disarm before they could discuss an end to the conflict.
Although Hamas has stated that it is prepared to cede power to other Palestinians, it will not surrender its weapons as long as Israel controls territory that the Palestinians desire for a future state. Additionally, it seeks assurances that Israel won’t start the conflict again, as it did in March.
Additional military escalation might result in greater compromises. However, in Gaza, where it no longer controls large areas, Hamas has already lost thousands of militants and almost all of its top officials. Iran and Hezbollah, two of its most powerful allies, have been seriously undermined.
Hamas, which likewise has a strong martyrdom culture, uses the hostages as its last negotiating tool.
It is possible that the conflict is still going on as it is.
Israel could keep launching daily strikes throughout the region, which it claims have only killed fighters but have regularly killed children and adults. Israeli troops were infrequently killed by Hamas’s low-tempo hit-and-run operations. Famine might be prevented and relief could be delivered more securely if additional steps are taken to bring food into Gaza.
Months or even years could pass while the hostages are held captive.
Even if Netanyahu maintains his coalition, new leadership may be elected when Israel holds elections in October 2026, and probably earlier.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has given Israel vital military and diplomatic assistance and demonstrated his influence over Netanyahu by mediating a ceasefire between Israel and Iran following a 12-day conflict in June, will play a major role in determining whether scenario materializes.
Although Trump has stated his desire to return the remaining captives home and stop the war in Gaza, he has not publicly pressured Israel and seems to have accepted their ceasefire terms in full.
Trump responded, “It’s going to be pretty much up to Israel,” when asked on Tuesday if he would back Israel reoccupying Gaza.
Visit https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war to follow AP’s coverage of the conflict.
