The most recent FDU survey shows that Democrat Mikie Sherrill is now ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by eight points.
You are a more trusting person than I am if you believe in early statewide polling.
The Quinnipiac poll, which was issued immediately following the primaries and showed Sherrill leading by 24 points, is roughly as informative as this most current survey. The current demographics indicate that the race is likely closer than eight points, and it was never 24 points.
When fall arrives, the race will intensify, the airwaves will be overrun with advertisements, and the margins will narrow. Jack Ciattarelli may regret tying his hopes to the Trump train if the election turns out to be close.
Given that New Jersey is a blue state, Mikie Sherrill has an inherent edge, which is why I found Ciattarelli’s decision to go all MAGA a little odd. It seems like Jack has run for governor a couple dozen times and has always been able to keep Trump at bay.
He lost, too.
In order to get support and the title of Most MAGA, the former Assemblyman strategically chose to kiss the president’s ring and rear quarters this time. The mission has been completed. He easily defeated a lackluster group of Republican opponents.
Even if Trump’s support ratings are still low, they were significantly higher a few months ago than they are now. You will be affected by months of deteriorating consumer sentiment and employment as well as ongoing social media reportage of masked men snatching migrants off the street.
In retrospect, it appears that Ciattarelli made a poor choice by willingly joining the coattails of a failing president just as the general election is about to get underway.
Sherrill will exert every effort to turn this race into a referendum on Trump. Affordability, pension contributions, and school finance formulae will all be hot topics. However, Mikie Sherrill and all of the national super PACs, who have plenty of money to spend on attack commercials, want you to think about Trump when the curtain closes in November. Not even Jack Ciattarelli.
In the previous round, Ciattarelli lost to Phil Murphy by a slim margin of three points, which is a respectable margin in a presidential contest. That is considered a nail-biter here in Jersey.
It’s difficult to envision him bridging that divide while in the president’s warm and tender embrace. After Trump won the popular vote and a second term, it likely seemed like a good idea to bend the knee. If Jack Ciattarelli wants to be governor, he will need to shift the topic after a few tariffs and few Epstein files.
The Ciattarelli campaign did a good deal of Trump pumping and chest pounding after the primary. He must now focus on Jersey issues if he hopes to make it a close battle.
Applying for a deferral from the cultural wars and explaining to the people of New Jersey how he intends to make it affordable to raise a family here is Ciattarelli’s best chance.
e.
