In an update to its 2025 hurricane season estimate released in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration marginally reduced the number of storms it predicted would occur.
The prediction still predicts an above-normal season this year, though, and as we get into the hurricane peak period, the odds are in favor of additional tropical activity.
NOAA announced on Thursday that it had lowered the range of designated storms from 13 to 19 to 13 to 18. So far this year, there have been four storms with names, but no hurricanes.
It also reduced the low end of major hurricane numbers by one, from two to five, and reduced the total number of storms to five to nine.
An above-normal hurricane season was 60% likely, according to the May projection. The likelihood has been reduced to 50%.
The season is approaching its peak, and ocean and atmospheric conditions continue to support an above-normal season, even though the statistics have been reduced downward, the report stated.
An vigorous West African Monsoon and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Seas are two of the variables contributing to the forecast of an above-average rest of the season.
This summer, there isn’t a La Ni an or an El Ni o. Hurricanes can be overthrown by El Niños since they tend to enhance wind shear across the Atlantic. Wind shear tends to be lessened by La Ni.
As stated by Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, a division of the National Weather Service, “many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions.”
Saharan dust dispersion is another component that seems to increase the chance of hurricanes from August to October. In early summer, large plumes of dry desert dust reach the Atlantic, but they usually subside by August.
At this time of year, West African monsoons, which form further south on the continent, also start to move more often into the tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclones can form from those systems.
Because landfall is rapidly influenced by short-term weather trends, NOAA stressed that the outlook is not a landfall forecast.
The month of November is hurricane season.
